Despite the arrival of two separate batches of frogs from the United States, efforts to establish a farm were unsuccessful. Only the year before, another anuran—the cane toad Rhinella marina —was imported into Queensland as a biological control for native beetle pests on sugar cane. The cane toad was overly successful in adapting to new surroundings. Today, wild or farmed frog legs are an important diet item in many countries, but not in Australia.
Many of these ostensibly explanatory conjectures are non-falsifiable, lacking in evidence or demonstrably false, yet public acceptance remains high. Efforts to convince the general public of the validity of medical and scientific findings can be hampered by such narratives, which can create the impression of doubt or disagreement in areas where the science is well established.
Conversely, historical examples of exposed conspiracies do exist and it may be difficult for people to differentiate between reasonable and dubious assertions.
In this work, we establish a simple mathematical model for conspiracies involving multiple actors with time, which yields failure probability for any given conspiracy.
Parameters for the model are estimated from literature examples of known scandals, and the factors influencing conspiracy success and failure are explored.
The model is also used to estimate the likelihood of claims from some commonly-held conspiratorial beliefs; these are namely that the moon-landings were faked, climate-change is a hoax, vaccination is dangerous and that a cure for cancer is being suppressed by vested interests.
The theory presented here might be useful in counteracting the potentially deleterious consequences of bogus and anti-science narratives, and examining the hypothetical conditions under which sustainable conspiracy might be possible.Robert S.
Day, How to Write and Publish a Scientific Paper, 4th edition, Oryx Press, Phoenix, Earlier editions also good. A bit more advanced, intended for those writing papers for publication.
our research explores connections between biological evolution and earth history in all organisms and time periods.
because time itself is of great utility in drawing these connec. Of the three major religions to emerge from the Middle East, Christianity seems to be the most impressive for its compassion, gentleness, and generosity towards non-followers (suc.
Raising Awareness of Endangered Species. 17 December After more than two years of in-depth scientific review following the filing of a petition to list by the Center for Biological Diversity and Greenpeace, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service concluded there is “substantial scientific or commercial information” indicating that the listing may be warranted.
It is also arguably the most elaborately vetted and exhaustively researched scientific paper in existence.
and.. “We understand why it boils but cannot predict where the next bubble will be. mega-storms and catastrophic floods.